Recognized and loved by almost all watch lovers, this Rolex submarine is one of the most popular watches in the world, not to mention Rolex. As a matter of fact, if you want to try and win a brand new submarine, you will have to wait anywhere between one and four years, depending on the type. Fortunately, many options on the secondary market make it easier and faster to get one of these iconic dive watches.
But once you start sifting through all the references, materials, and designs, it’s easy to start wondering why such huge price disparities come into play. So, I’m going to analyze two very different ends of the Rolex Submariner spectrum – a reasonable and still damn-good-looking $10k Submariner and an older model that is worth more than $100k.
Besides being one of the most popular Rolex models, submarines have a long and rich history. The watch was first released in 1953 as a reference to the Rolex 6204 and has undergone many design changes over the past 60 years, making it one of the most aesthetically diverse replica watches in the Rolex line.
So when we look at the $10k reference 16613, which is from the serial year 2006-2007, we know it is a newer generation model. The famous stainless and gold two-tone Submariner was only first launched in 1984, so the modern 16613 presented here doesn’t have any real generational provenance that would add to its value.
However, compared to older Submariner 16613 watches, this one being made closer to the end of the reference’s production does hold a little more value. Since reference 16613 has yet to reach vintage status, newer versions like this one here, are actually more valuable.
The Submariner 6538 was in production for only a handful of years during the late 1950s, and as a result of its short production run, a relatively small number of reference 6538 watches were made. On top of that, many refs. 6538 Submariner watches were treated roughly, which further decreases the number that is still in existence today. There is Submariner that was worn by Sean Connery in the original James Bond films on top of everything else, which helps make the 6538 one of the most desirable Submariner references in history.
This is where the origins and the little details really get interesting. The latest version of the fake Rolex submarine was first introduced about 20 years ago, and almost every model produced since then has been the same. Compare that to reference 6538, which despite being created for only some short years was fitted with both chronometer-certified and non-chronometer-certified movements, along with a wide range of dial variations.
Small production numbers and the inherent variation that exists among surviving examples create huge excitement for collectors. Besides, the way that individual watches age over time – like the dial on this ref. 6538 which is fading to a rich “Tropical” brown color – makes further variation among a single reference to the point where no two watches are so close to the real models.
Beyond the physical properties of the watch itself, who owned it can make a big difference when it comes to the vintage Rolex collection. As mentioned earlier, the submarine was regarded as a precision diving tool in the late 1950s, and a significant number of submarines ended up in the hands of serving soldiers. Older Rolex watches with a history of military use are often more valuable as a result.
Even without the famous past owner, the above fake watch is the same submarine reference worn in the early James Bond films that made it more popular with collectors. And if the submarine 6538 that Sean Connery wore in the movie does turn up for auction, its provenance alone could guarantee a seven-figure price.
